- Grayscale filed for a spot Cardano ETF with Coinbase Custody as custodian; approval odds stand at 58% per Polymarket.
- Bloomberg analysts estimate an 81% chance of XRP ETF approval, with Litecoin leading at 90% and Solana at 70%.
- Bitcoin ETFs see strong demand, while Ethereum ETFs lag. New administration may boost regulatory approval chances for crypto ETFs.
A spot crypto exchange traded fund (ETF) allows investors to gain exposure to digital assets without directly holding them.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have already secured spot ETFs, with Bitcoin’s launch being the most successful ETF debut. Focus shifts to other cryptos, including Cardano, XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin, as firms file for ETF approvals.
Cardano ETF
NYSE Arca has filed a 19b-4 form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on behalf of Grayscale to establish a spot Cardano ETF. Coinbase Custody will be the custodian, while BNY Mellon will be the administrator.
NYSE Arca Files For First Cardano ETF On Behalf Of Grayscale
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) February 11, 2025
NYSE Arca has filed a 19b-4 form on behalf of Grayscale to create a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF, with Coinbase Custody as the custodian and BNY Mellon as the administrator.
This marks the first ever ETF proposal based on… pic.twitter.com/ISmupDDrnQ
Grayscale already operates Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, indicating confidence in Cardano’s potential. Following the filing, ADA saw a price increase. However, according to Polymarket, the probability of an ADA ETF approval this year stands at 58%.
Analysts suggest that Charles Hoskinson’s leadership and Cardano’s network resilience could positively influence the approval process.
XRP ETFs and Approval Odds
XRP is also seeking an ETF approval, with the SEC acknowledging Grayscale’s 19b-4 filing on February 13. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart confirmed the acknowledgment. Although acknowledgment does not guarantee approval, it is a step forward. Polymarket estimates an 81% chance of an XRP spot ETF receiving regulatory approval.
Solana, Litecoin and Dogecoin ETF Seek
Solana has also had multiple ETF filings, with submissions from Canary, Vaneck, Bitwise, and 21Shares. According to Polymarket, Solana has an 83% probability of approval. Meanwhile, Litecoin stands out with an 84% chance for a 2025 spot ETF approval.
🚨BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The SEC has officially acknowledged the following Spot @Solana ETF filings today:
— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) February 11, 2025
•Canary Solana ETF
•@vaneck_us Solana ETF
•@BitwiseInvest Solana ETF
•@21Shares Solana ETF pic.twitter.com/V1by9sPNpb
Litecoin’s bigger chance is due to its similarities to Bitcoin’s proof of work mechanism. Dogecoin has filings from Grayscale, Bitwise, and REX Shares. The SEC has acknowledged Dogecoin’s ETF proposal and requested public comments, a step toward possible approval.
Analysts Weigh in on Crypto ETF Prospects
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have assessed the latest crypto ETF filings. They indicate high approval odds for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. According to their estimates, Litecoin leads with a 90% chance of approval, followed by Dogecoin at 75%, Solana at 70%, and XRP at 65%.
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
Here's the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
Despite growing interest in new crypto ETFs, only Bitcoin and Ethereum have secured regulatory approval. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen exceptional demand, with 11 providers in the U.S. and BlackRock’s IBIT fund holding $57 billion in assets.
Ethereum ETFs, approved in July 2024, have not generated the same level of interest. According to Lookonchain data, Bitcoin ETFs, on February 13th, saw a net outflow of 2,467 BTC, amounting to $236.74 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,691 ETH, worth $9.82 million.
Feb 13 Update:
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 13, 2025
10 #Bitcoin ETFs
NetFlow: -2,467 $BTC(-$236.74M)🔴#Fidelity outflows 1,048 $BTC($100.58M) and currently holds 208,525 $BTC($20.01B).
9 #Ethereum ETFs
NetFlow: -3,691 $ETH(-$9.82M)🔴#Fidelity outflows 3,999 $ETH($10.64M) and currently holds 450,905 $ETH($1.2B).… pic.twitter.com/TGERfHosQz
With regulatory approval speculatively more favourable now under new administration, the competition for the next approved crypto ETF is high. Cardano’s filing is a forward step, but whether it secures approval before its competitors, it remains to be seen.
